NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Maverick McNealy (+10000) … As always when Scottie Scheffler is in play, any fraction of a unit you’d dedicate to someone else is a hedge, so you might as well make it worthwhile. McNealy rested after finishing T5 at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. Because Muirfield Village can be the proper primer for any tough test, this rides on the possibilities. After a couple of pedestrian rounds to open, he was one of only 3-under par in both of the last two rounds, so confidence concerning form upon arrival at Oakmont is where it needs to be. He also led the field in proximity to the hole and slotted second in conversion percentage inside 10 feet. The unique bonus for him at Oakmont is that, while the putting surface will be glassy – at least eventually once the course dries from early-week rain – they are Poa annua, the strain on which he’s done so much damage in his comfort zone on the West Coast.

Top 5

Viktor Hovland (+750) … For the first time this season, just as it happened on numerous occasions last year, my top five tout delivered last week when Cameron Young was +900 for the RBC Canadian Open. He finished T4. Hovland was among last season’s series of payoffs in this market in Sleepers when he finished third at the PGA Championship to reward tickets with him at +650, but it’s a coincidence that he’s the endorsement in the same market for the U.S. Open. Not unlike his out-of-nowhere podium finish at Valhalla in 2024, from seemingly deeper depths, he prevailed at the Valspar Championship two months ago. He’s sustained a solid-not-spectacular run of form since, but the key is that it’s been consistently effective in contrast to most of the last year and a half. While he’s still wrestling to control his short game like a firefighter in training negotiating an open hose, the 8,500-square foot targets at Oakmont automatically reduce whatever pressure he’d otherwise feel in getting on them in regulation even as a sharpshooter from tee to green. But even when he won’t, grinding out pars is the nature of the beast at the U.S. Open, and bogey won’t be such a bad score at times.

Top 10

Denny McCarthy (+600) … Although he has just two top 10s this season, both were in deep fields on tough tracks – a T5 in The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines and a T8 in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow – and he has another four top 20s. But all of that merely is predictable given how his grit plays up to the challenge. Tenacious around and on greens, the 32-year-old will not be overwhelmed by Oakmont. Although segmented with undulations, big targets allow what is his statistically average long game to set the stage for his calling card on the greens. Currently seventh in Strokes Gained: Putting and 17th in Bogey Avoidance, which, given his profile throughout his career, also is predictable.

Top 20

Aaron Rai (+220) … In the three majors that reserve space for 156 competitors, you’re going to find plenty of value from which to choose down board, but when your scan of the markets stops on a guy who presents as probably shorter than he should be but still at plus value, it’s an opportunity to multiply the units. That’s where the Englishman slots in this market for the U.S. Open. He leads the PGA TOUR in hitting fairways and ranks 19th in greens in regulation. That combination alone solidifies him as favorable, but with six top 20s this season and three in nine career starts in the majors, the marriage of his current form and success in the series closes the sale.

Nick Taylor (+280) … If Sleepers was based solely on current form, then he’d be ineligible after a fourth-place finish at the Memorial and a T13 at the RBC Canadian Open, where he won the Rivermead Cup as low Canuck. But if this weekly focus cared only about course and/or tournament history, then you’d wonder why he’s this short for a Top 20, because he’s without a top 25 in 16 starts in the majors, the first two of which as an amateur. Even worse, he’s missed the cut in 10 of his last 11 tries. So, something will give at Oakmont. For a 37-year-old with four top 20s in his most recent five starts, I’m hanging my visor on form, but it’s still supported with a kicker – his ball-striking. He’s 17th in fairways hit, fifth in GIR and 18th in Proximity. And on a par 70, it’s a bonus that he’s 24th in Par-3 Scoring and 10th in Par-4 Scoring.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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