Draws & Fades: Why oddsmakers (and I) still favor Scottie Scheffler over Rory McIlroy
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Scottie Scheffler makes birdie at THE PLAYERS
Written by Ben Everill
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – Rory McIlroy shares the lead, but Scottie Scheffler remains the betting favorite after a star-studded opening round of THE PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass.
McIlroy and Xander Schauffele set the pace early with 7-under 65s before U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark matched them in the afternoon wave to set up a three-way tie at the top.
They lead by one over another former U.S. Open champion in Matt Fitzpatrick and recent WM Phoenix Open winner Nick Taylor.
Defending champion and world No. 1 Scheffler is just two off the lead after a 5-under 67, joined in sixth by former major winner Jason Day, young gun Ludvig Åberg, course-record holder Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan and Maverick McNealy. Jimmy Stanger sits 5-under through 16 holes having had his round cut short due to darkness.
Scheffler is now +350 to be the first ever back-to-back winner at TPC Sawgrass via BetMGM Sportsbook. McIlroy, the 2019 champion at THE PLAYERS, is at +450.
But while the oddsmakers love the top two players in the world, there are still a plethora of players who can take this title with 54 holes still to play.
Updated odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship (via BetMGM):
- +350: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
- +450: Rory McIlroy (-7)
- +700: Xander Schauffele (-7)
- +1200: Wyndham Clark (-6)
- +1800: Ludvig Åberg (-5), Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
- +2000: Max Homa (-4)
- +2500: Nick Taylor (-6)
- +2800: Jason Day (-5), Tom Hoge (-5)
DRAWS
Scottie Scheffler +350
This one hurts a little after fading him for most of the last year, but I’m still struggling after he burned me last week on his way to winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Scheffler put together a 5-under 67 without much of his best ball-striking, ranking 34th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (but fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee.) I feel he will recapture his iron play going off early in the morning Friday and climb up the leaderboard. I admit, I hate the odds, but I worry we might not see much better from here. It won’t come as a surprise if Scheffler is the leader when McIlroy and others head out in the afternoon wave.
“It felt fairly stress-free," Scheffler said. "I had the really good par there on 18. Outside of the start, I played a lot of really good golf. It's nice to only have one bogey around this place and hopefully continue to do more of that the next few days.”
Nick Taylor +2500
People keep underestimating the Canadian at their peril. Taylor showed he can take down Scheffler in the heat of battle earlier this year, and as such, these odds are nice to see for bettors. Pro-tip: He’s off in the afternoon on Friday, so perhaps wait till near his tee time for even more juice. At 14th in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach he’s hitting the ball beautifully and will still have a chip on his shoulder given oddsmakers are still virtually discounting him.
“It was great," Taylor said. "It was kind of the round you're hoping for when you tee off in the morning here and there's soft conditions. It was nice to get off to a great start and kind of sustain that. No bogeys is what I'm most proud of. It's a tough golf course to do that, so that was nice.”
Matt Fitzpatrick +1800
As one of my pre-tournament longshots in Benny and the Bets, Fitzpatrick is still on my radar. The Englishman was on seemingly everyone’s tip sheet for Bay Hill last week, but when he missed the cut he was forgotten by most leading into THE PLAYERS. They shouldn’t be forgetting him now. Ranked first in SG: Off-the-Tee, 18th in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Putting shows he’s figured something out in the last few days.
“Drove it like I feel like I can drive it. That obviously puts me in a great position to hit solid golf shots from there, and putted well, as well, which has been something that's been a bit on and off this year,” Fitzpatrick said. “To me it felt a bit more like my old self, drove the ball well, putted well, and that's kind of always been the key to when I've played well really.”
FADES
Rory McIlroy +450
The fact McIlroy shot 7-under despite ranking 109th in SG: Off-the-Tee was ultra-impressive, helped by ranking second in SG: Approach and leading the field in SG: Putting. But here’s my concern: While I expect he will improve off the tee to his usual self, I also fear he will regress a little with his irons and putter. I’m not saying Rory can’t win this tournament, I’m saying I think he might be higher odds after the second round if Scheffler surges and McIlroy regresses just a little. Then we can decide if he’s the man to jump on after 36 holes.
Adding an extra layer is his two penalty drops from Thursday. While I’m happy with his drops, just the fact they were disputed by some brings an extra layer of mental strain.

Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland discuss ruling at THE PLAYERS
“I feel like I'm one of the most conscientious golfers out here, so if I feel like I've done something wrong, it'll play on my conscience for the rest of the tournament," McIlroy said. "I'm a big believer in karma, and if you do something wrong, I feel like it's going to come around and bite you at some point.
“I obviously don't try to do anything wrong out there and play by the rules and do the right thing. I feel like I obviously did that those two drops.”
LOTTERY TICKET
Justin Thomas +6600
My pre-tournament pick to win struggled to a 1-under 71 on Thursday, hitting it all over the map off the tee, losing 1.53 strokes (126th). But he was sneakily ranked 12th on Approach, which gives a slight glimmer of hope of a turnaround early Friday morning. Thomas will need a low one to get back in it, but the 2021 champion has it in him if he gets his head switched on.