Texas has been a happy hunting ground for Australians on the PGA TOUR and the trend could continue after impressive starts from two of its biggest stars.

The opening round at the AT&T Byron Nelson is in the books with former champions Adam Scott and Jason Day right in the thick of things at TPC Craig Ranch, and with the caveat that at times I can show bias towards my countrymen, things are looking good for the men from down under.

But the round of the day didn’t come from an Aussie, instead it came from South Korean Seung-Yul Noh – a +30000 pre-tournament shot and +15000 to claim the first-round lead. Noh produced a personal best 11-under 60, despite cracking the face of his driver!

Scott shares second with Zecheng Dou at eight under while Day is among six players at seven under that includes betting favorite and World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler.

Scheffler was nearly unconscious on the way to being six under through six holes before cooling off in the middle of his round with three bogeys. But the Texan closed with two birdies and an eagle in his last five.

With three rounds to go at TPC Craig Ranch here are the updated odds to win the AT&T Byron Nelson (via BetMGM Sportsbook).

+200: Scottie Scheffler (-7, T4)

+750: Adam Scott (-8, T2)

+800: Jason Day (-7, T4)

+1000: Seung-Yul Noh (-11, 1st)

+2200: Hideki Matsuyama (-5, T17)

+2200: Si Wo Kim (-6, T10)

+3000: Ryan Palmer (-7, T4)

+3300: Sam Stevens (-6, T10)

+3500: Luke List (-7, T4)

Here’s a look at some of the players I’m looking to back (and oppose) in what’s shaping up to be a riveting final three rounds in the Lone Star state.

DRAWS

JASON DAY (+750 to win, -7 T4)

It has been a long time since this 12-time PGA TOUR winner has tasted victory (2018) but the 2010 AT&T Byron Nelson champion is in the midst of a career renaissance. Day managed to go seven deep despite making seven straight pars to open his round. The field played those seven holes collectively 105-under. He ranked 16th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – an important metric for his success – but most importantly was fifth in SG: Approach and 18th in SG: Putting, the two key metrics at this course. Day was let down by losing -0.954 strokes around the green (ranked 127th) but he’s 26th in the metric on TOUR this season.

With his vertigo issues always a concern for bettors, Day gave a positive assessment post-round.

“I hit a couple speed bumps middle part of this year just with some health issues, but I feel like I'm getting on top of it now, which is great. Looking forward to tomorrow's round,“ Day said.

“It was good to get a 4-under run in the middle part of my round. I think maybe 20-under or so will win this, so you're thinking at least five a day would be good, and it was nice to get a couple more than that.

“I feel like I've always putted pretty well, and I'm starting to find the roll again, which is nice. Fingers crossed everything can kind of align this week.”

ADAM SCOTT (+800, -8 T2)

While Day unexpectedly struggled around the greens, Scott perhaps unexpectedly thrived. The veteran led the field in SG: Around-the-Green (+2.604) and was second in SG: Off-the-Tee (+2.181) for good measure.

To the naked eye the ranks for SG: Approach (75th) and SG: Putting (38th) might seem underwhelming but as I pointed out in my preview, Scott has some specific approach metrics in his favor this week. He ranks fifth in birdies or better from 200+ yards and is third in relation to par on approach from 50-75 yards, historically important distances at TPC Craig Ranch.

Coming off a T5 at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship the confidence is high for a man who has won all three Texas TOUR events in the past.

“All really good solid stuff, especially off the tee. It's probably the best I've driven it in forever. That was a nice way to start every hole,” Scott said.

“Took advantage of that nicely, certainly out of the gates on some of the long par-4s, birdieing three of the first four holes on that side is a nice way to start. Was happy to keep it going all the way around.”

FADES

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+200, -7 T4)

Look, I know you all think I’ve been punched one too many times by a boxing Kangaroo by now, but those who rode the roller coaster with Scheffler in the opening round can’t be that excited about a +200 number with three rounds remaining.

Clearly the world No. 2 has the skills to get the win in front of his home faithful, but with several missed short putts as part of his three mid-round bogeys, the writing is on the wall that he could quickly fall behind as the birdies continue to rain.

The margins are too thin in a shootout. You just can’t afford to miss key putts. Scheffler made 72’3” of putts in the first five holes, holed out for an eagle on the sixth, but then made just 6’2” worth of putts from holes 7-13!

“I was pretty frustrated mid -round. I didn't feel like I was doing anything wrong, I just kind of got on the wrong end of a few things, and the putts definitely weren't falling middle of the round, but the beginning and the end everything was going in,” he said.

“I'll remember those putts towards the end and the beginning of the round, I hit a lot of good putts today and was fortunate to shoot a good round.”

LUKE LIST (-7, T4)

The former Farmers Insurance Open winning List had a great day out that included driving the par-4 14th and nailing an eagle putt. He ranked 29th in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Putting.

The problem is List ranks 70th on the season in SG: Approach and more worryingly, 202nd in SG: Putting. Recent history tells us List won’t be able to maintain the hot putter over the next three rounds which means he will need to be near perfect everywhere else.

“It's been kind of a struggle…,” List admitted post round. “Played nicely. One bogey out there, but made a lot of mid-range putts, which was really nice. Just anytime you can get going a little bit under par, for me lately that hasn't happened a whole lot, so it's nice to get a good round.”

SEUNG-YUL NOH (-11, 1st)

It was a phenomenal opening round from Noh who looks to keep the Korean mojo going following K.H. Lee’s back-to-back wins here. But for the 2014 Zurich Classic of New Orleans winner to continue this form would be a real stunner.

Noh has yet to notch up a top-10 this season in 12 starts… and he had none at all from 22 starts last season! In fact, we have to go all the way back to the Wells Fargo Championship of 2017 for his last top 10 on TOUR!

Given his recent struggles, it would be the upset of the season should he hold the trophy come Sunday.