The winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard is most likely going to be chalk, but betting opportunities could lie in the Top 10 market if the recent Signature Events are any indication.

This year’s three Signature Events have been won by Hideki Matsuyama (The Sentry), Rory McIlroy (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and Ludvig Åberg (The Genesis Invitational) - all +2500 or less pre-tournament.

And in 2024 we saw Scottie Scheffler (Travelers Championship, the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, RBC Heritage and Arnold Palmer Invitational), McIlroy (Truist Championship), Matsuyama (The Genesis Invitational) and Wyndham Clark (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) as winners – all major champions, and all but Clark at short odds.

So while we saw the likes of Kurt Kitayama and Matt Every win at Bay Hill in the last decade, with the limited Signature Event fields, those days might be gone.

If we are to continue on the track of big names/chalk, outright selections might be limited to two-time champion Scheffler (+320), another former champ in McIlroy (+750), Åberg (+1600), the returning Xander Schauffele (+1800), Collin Morikawa (+2200) or Tommy Fleetwood (+2500). Perhaps we can extend it out to Justin Thomas (+2800), Matsuyama (+2800) and Patrick Cantlay (+3000).

If we add the fact that 12 of the last 13 previous winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational had at least one top 25 at Bay Hill prior to their victory, we just strengthen the case of those above – as they all fit that mold.

Seven of the last eight champions here have been inside the top 16 of Strokes Gained: Approach on the way to victory. In recent years, the greens have been some of the toughest on TOUR to hit in regulation.

Fleetwood (first), Thomas (fifth), Scheffler (seventh), Morikawa (10th), Matsuyama (14th) and McIlroy (28th) are all trending very nicely here, while Schauffele is returning from injury. Even Cantlay is gaining on the TOUR average while being ranked 59th.

Bogey Avoidance will be critical – you need to stay out of the water and other trouble lurking – and we see McIlroy (third), Thomas (eighth), Scheffler (ninth), Matsuyama (16th), Morikawa (16th) and Cantlay (33rd) nice and high in this metric.

Basically, everything points to the chalk in the outright market. But if we dive into the 34 players who have finished in the top 10 of the first three Signature Events this season, we see this as a place for opportunity.

At The Sentry, four of the 12 players to finish inside the top 10 had pre-tournament odds higher than +500 to finish inside the top 10. At Pebble Beach, it was seven of the 11 who were +500 or higher, including a pair of +1100s. And last up, at The Genesis Invitational, it was once again four of 11 actually +600 or higher.

So, who are our top 10 targets at juicy odds?

You can look at a hot hand coming in like Ben Griffin (+500) who forced his way in via the Aon Swing 5 and who was T14 last time out at Bay Hill, as well as someone like Akshay Bhatia (+550) who has a couple of top 10s on the way to his first hit out at here. Or you can look at a talented player who hasn’t been at his best but plays well at Bay Hill like Sahith Theegala (+650). Theegala has been T14 and T6 at Arnie’s place recently.

But the even juicier targets could be Harris English (+900) and Nick Taylor (+850). Both are already winners this season at the Farmers Insurance Open and Sony Open in Hawaii, respectively, yet are given very little chance by oddsmakers to contend again. Considering English has four top 25s at Bay Hill since 2018, with two being top 10s. Taylor is sitting fourth this season in SG: Approach and 15th in SG: Total.

Benny's betting card

OUTRIGHT

Scottie Scheffler +360 – These odds are brutal, and I’d actually advise riding the live betting and hoping for a fluctuation to move him out past +700 in the opening round. But with two recent wins here, it feels like the place Scheffler kick-starts his season.

Justin Thomas/Hideki Matsuyama +2800 – If we put the majority of our outlay on Scheffler, then I’d push out to the “high” odds of the chalk for a little nibble as well. Thomas has been the guy I’ve run with multiple times to break his drought, so I won’t bail yet. Matsuyama is just back to some of his best, seemingly playing injury-free.

PROPS

Ben Griffin Top 10 +500 – I’m looking to find the juicy odds for players to make their mark this week in the place markets, and Griffin is playing great golf with a couple of top fives coming in to earn his place.

Nick Taylor Top 10 +850 – With his approach game dialed in, Taylor becomes a sneaky chance here. Look, the Canadian is either rocks or diamonds most weeks – but at this price, I’m hoping it’s the latter.

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