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TGL betting preview: Playoff narrative can influence betting strategy

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Golfbet News

Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy trade clutch par putts at TGL

Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy trade clutch par putts at TGL

    Written by Ben Everill

    With playoff spots on the line this week, the betting narrative for the TGL double-header on Monday night at the SoFi Center becomes one of scenarios, as well as skill.

    Last week’s triple-header reinvigorated the tech-based league and set up a fascinating playoff push for all six teams, and Monday night’s fixtures, starting with Los Angeles Golf Club against the New York Golf Club at 5 p.m. ET, become all-important.

    If LAGC (2-0-1) takes care of business, they will not only clinch for themselves but also for The Bay Golf Club by virtue of New York’s loss. New York (1-2-0) won’t be eliminated with a loss, but they’ll be under immense pressure and will open the door for Boston Common Golf or Jupiter Links Golf Club to sneak their way into the post-season, with four of the six teams qualifying for the playoffs.

    Speaking of the BallFrogs, Boston Common’s predicament is more dire when they take on Atlanta Drive GC in the 9 p.m. ET matchup. If New York win the early match, they are in must-win territory. If Los Angeles win, Atlanta will be facing a clinching scenario with a victory.

    Los Angeles (-138) vs. New York (+110)

    In the opening match, Los Angeles has drafted in Tony Finau on a one-match contract to lead off with Collin Morikawa and Sahith Theegala. Finau's a pretty decent fill-in while Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose are away. New York will go to battle with Cameron Young playing lead-off, Matt Fitzpatrick in the middle and Rickie Fowler at anchor.

    FanDuel Sportsbook has LAGC as the -138 favorite, with New York at +110, and for good reason. LAGC leads TGL in holes won with 20, Triples points with 16 and is tied first in Singles points at seven.

    Even accounting for their new addition in Finau, who might need some time to get the feel for the arena, the L.A. crew looks formidable. They have been deadly on the green, making 82.3% of putts inside 10 feet (most in TGL) and also a healthy three putts from 10-30 feet, something New York has failed to do at all this season. In fact, the longest putt New York has made is just over 6 feet.

    As good as Cam Young is off the tee, the play on the greens is where points have mattered. LA’s Morikawa is yet to lose a Singles hole, while New York’s Fitzpatrick is yet to win one.


    Matt Fitzpatrick throws a dart at TGL

    Matt Fitzpatrick throws a dart at TGL


    Benny’s Bets

    Take Los Angeles GC -138 to clinch a playoff berth here and if you are feeling frisky add LAGC to lead after six holes at +100. I’m honestly expecting a possible blowout, so the somewhat conservative Winning Margin of 3+ points at +180 is also an option.

    Boston Common (-112) vs. Atlanta Drive (-112)

    In the second match of the night, Boston will send out Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy to take on Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel and Patrick Cantlay. As mentioned earlier, if Los Angeles wins, then Atlanta can clinch but it’s Boston who have their backs against the wall.

    A win could move Boston into fourth place if New York and Jupiter Links lose their matches in regulation this week. A loss in regulation does not eliminate Boston from playoff contention, but it would require New York and Jupiter to lose their remaining matches in regulation.

    Both teams are priced at -112 via FanDuel Sportsbook in this crucial matchup, despite the fact Boston has been largely disappointing thus far and is coming off a loss to Jupiter Links while Atlanta was a putt away from sending their only loss to overtime.

    As the only team without a win, Boston is a calamitous +1900 to win the league, but is this the time when McIlroy & Co. finally come to the party? If they can find a win in this match, and New York loses the first match of the night as I expect they might, the path to the playoffs remains alive. And from there… anything is possible!

    Updated odds to win TGL (via FanDuel)

    • +160: The Bay Golf Club
    • +280: Los Angeles Golf Club
    • +300: Atlanta Drive GC
    • +750: New York Golf Club
    • +1200: Jupiter Links Golf Club
    • +1900: Boston Common Golf

    I am trying to imagine a world where both Tiger Woods (Jupiter) and Rory McIlroy (Boston) don’t make the playoffs, and while the odds suggest it’s likely, I’m not prepared to say that’s going to happen. Instead, I am going to go out on a limb and find reasons to believe in a Boston resurgence.

    Boston has the edge on Atlanta in Driving Accuracy and in Greens in Regulation but they have struggled to get up and down when they miss. That will need to change.

    The huge Singles match-up of Bradley vs. Thomas will be crucial and Ryder Cup Captain Bradley needs to continue his form of winning his last four Singles holes against Thomas, who hasn’t lost in Singles yet this season.

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