To chalk, or not to chalk, is a dilemma sports bettors face constantly, and it is no different in golf.

Last season, betting the favorites would have netted you a nice return on the PGA TOUR, but until Scottie Scheffler started his run this season, it was shaping a longshot central!

Scheffler’s dominance of late along with Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry’s team win in New Orleans last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans may have shifted the balance of power back to the chalk-friendly wagerers… or has it?

Can we start to believe, with the major season now in full swing, that the cream is rising to the top? Or has the new-look PGA TOUR schedule started to show some patterns we can trust?

With the return to a calendar-year schedule, the TOUR created a roster of Signature Events. The limited field, big-purse events scattered around THE PLAYERS Championship and the four majors are where the stars congregate.

It has given some clarity to those stars, who obviously make up the majority of chalk on a betting board when they play, in terms of their schedules. They know they’ll be at the Signature Events and the majors, and they sprinkle other PGA TOUR events, like this week’s THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, in and amongst their efforts.

The goal of all players is to win every week they play, but the elite are really trying to peak for the big ones. Those not in the Signature Events have the added carrot of pushing their way into the limited fields via the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5 – or, of course, by winning.

We’ve now had five of the eight Signature Events of the season, plus the PLAYERS and the Masters. It gives us some data to dissect.

Discounting The Sentry, as it was a season opener, we can look at what happened the week before Signature Events thus far. Before the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am we had Matthieu Pavon breakthrough for his first TOUR win at the Farmers Insurance Open. He was not yet eligible for the Signature Events.

Before The Genesis Invitational, we had Nick Taylor win the WM Phoenix Open. He was already eligible, although he needed to beat Charley Hoffman, who wasn’t eligible to that point, in a playoff to do so.

The week before the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard we saw Austin Eckroat, not yet eligible for Signature Events, win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

Lastly, in the week before the RBC Heritage, we had the unique situation of Scheffler winning the Masters – clearly, he was already eligible. But, if we go back the week prior to the Masters, Akshay Bhatia – not eligible for Signatures or the Masters at that point – won the Valero Texas Open.

It was that same week this column talked about the distractions of the future being a factor. At the time my gut feeling was to suggest those already in the Masters were not the best options, yet I let the wise words of Golfbet colleagues pull me back from a more definitive take. Turned out, a non-Masters player in Bhatia won, but multiple guys heading to Augusta National were right behind him on the board including Denny McCarthy, who lost the playoff. Both sides could claim at least moral victories.

So with a few more data points now, can we say we are seeing a trend of those players who are on the outside of the elite, looking in, stepping up in the non-Signature Event weeks? With the Wells Fargo Championship upcoming next week at Quail Hollow, how does this affect those in the field at TPC Craig Ranch – and in turn, your bets?

The bottom line is, at the starting gate in Texas, I’d say next week doesn’t affect players at all. BUT, it can bring plenty of insight into live betting. Make sure to keep tabs on Golfbet’s Draws and Fades columns post round this week for nuggets on who to rely on mid-tournament.

Once things get going, and bad bounces and breaks enter the party, a player’s true mental capacity is tested. If defending champion Jason Day, also a previous winner at Quail Hollow, finds himself six back after 18 holes in Texas, will he grind to claw back, or will he play loose, take dead aim at pins, hoping for a 63 – but not concerned if it turns into a 73, knowing he can reload at Quail Hollow?

Will Texas local Jordan Spieth push his dodgy wrist to the limit if he has a rough start? Clearly if he opens with a 65 and is flying, he will look to surge forward. But if he’s sore after a 70, and eight back, at what point does self-preservation come into thinking?

On the other side of the coin does a Mark Hubbard, fresh off contending with Ryan Brehm in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and sitting just outside the cut off for the Aon Swing 5, have the momentum and the freedom of knowing he’s playing great golf and the carrot for bigger things is right there in front of him?

Those playing like every week is their chance to change their lives are hungrier at times, and if they can push through the pressure of the moment like Pavon, Bhatia and Eckroat have done, then it truly can be life-changing.

This week, with my Expert Picks selections, I have two players highlighted who are in Signature Events, and two who aren’t.

Those who are:

Winner: Stephan Jaeger (+2800) – "A recent winner on TOUR who knows how to string together rounds in the 60s and has proven adept on the par 4s at TPC Craig Ranch. T11 here a year ago but playing with more confidence now."

Sidenote: Jaeger at +320 for Top Continental European is a bet I’d have my eye on.

Head-to-Head: Seamus Power (-125) over Beau Hossler – "A T19, T17 and T9 in the past at TPC Craig Ranch; a T12 last start; Power is a horse for this course. Almost slotted him in the top 10 section, but top 20 is clearly his sweet spot. Plus, the GB crew has a thing for fading Hossler in head-to-heads until he proves we should do otherwise!"

Sidenote: I love Power at +200 for a Top 20, or +400 for a Top 10 if feeling brave.

And those who aren’t:

Top 10: Mark Hubbard (+450) – "Hasn’t missed a cut all year and is coming off a great effort in Zurich Classic with Ryan Brehm. Hubbard has a brilliant SG: Approach game, always helpful here, and is 19th on TOUR in scoring average this season. Plus, and maybe this is the best reason, I can’t wait to see Matt DelVecchio’s face when he’s runner up to Jaeger, giving me two paydays, and him none.”

Sidenote: I can be argued into sprinkle options from outright to top 20 on Hubbard.

Longshot: Joseph Bramlett (+10000) – "If you want a longshot with more win equity then look at Power or two-time champ K.H. Lee but Bramlett is a lottery ticket option given he pops in some areas. Two top-20s in three starts at the course, and 25th on TOUR in Par-4 Scoring. Gained 1.426 total strokes per round on the field in his three starts at TPC Craig Ranch.”

Sidenote: Bramlett becomes a cool flyer for first round leader or top 20, top 40 markets.

But I want to add the other side of the coin for you in some of these markets as well.

Winner: K.H. Lee (+5000) – A two-time champion at TPC Craig Ranch can’t be discounted despite current form. No one expected him to win when he did, so why not catch lightning in the bottle again this week? With the new sponsor involved here you can be sure the Korean contingent will be fired up to play well. So don’t be afraid to look at Si Woo Kim and Tom Kim on the chalk (and Signature eligible) side of things.

Top 10: Tom Hoge (+320) – Second on TOUR for rounds in the 60s behind only Scheffler is iron maestro Hoge, who is also second on TOUR in SG: Approach. Ninth in birdie average bodes well in a shootout.

Good luck!

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