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Apr 29, 2024

Odds Outlook: Texas hero Jordan Spieth favorite ahead of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

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Key stats for picking a winner at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Key stats for picking a winner at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    Editor's note: Will Zalatoris, who was originally covered in this week's Odds Outlook, withdrew from THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson on Tuesday, April 30th.

    The month of April begins and ends in the Lone Star State.

    The Valero Texas Open in San Antonio started the party, and THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, located in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, is the encore.

    Usually reserved for the week before the PGA Championship in May, a Full-Field Event of 156 players tees it up at TPC Craig Ranch.

    Dallas native Jordan Spieth (+1400) made his PGA TOUR debut at this event in 2010 as a high school junior at age 16. Previously contested at TPC Las Colinas, TPC Four Seasons and Trinity Forest until 2019, THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson moved to TPC Craig Ranch for the 2021 edition, and the three-time major champion approved the relocation. Running second in 2022 after T9 on debut in 2021, the new venue has produced 43-under from Spieth in two starts. A lingering wrist issue has forced a run of inconsistent results recently. Missing the cut in three of his last five starts, cashing T10 in San Antonio to start the month is his best result since T6 in February at TPC Scottsdale, another Tom Weiskopf design.

    Dating back to 2023, Alex Noren (+1800) has cashed in his last 14 events entered on TOUR. The Swede has cashed five straight T23 or better, including T11 in Houston and T14 in San Antonio. Producing four rounds of 65 or better from eight chances, the move to the par-71, 7,414-yard TPC Craig Ranch has not bothered him. Chasing his first victory on TOUR, he has posted 33 of 35 rounds at par or better this season but has produced just one top-10 payday (T9 Cognizant Classic).

    Everything, including the bank account of Adam Scott (+2000), is bigger in Texas. The Australian is the only TOUR player to win all four stroke play events contested in the Lone Star State. Navigating the wind and complexity of golf in Texas, the 2013 Masters champion will be looking for his 15th PGA TOUR win and first since The Genesis Invitational in February of 2020. Cashing in five of seven events this season, his best was T8 at TPC Scottsdale, followed by T14 in San Antonio.

    Jason Day (+2000), the 2010 and 2023 champion, is back to defend for a second time. A victory this week would join him with K.H. Lee (+4500) as the only player to win this event twice in McKinney. Last year, he won by a shot and posted his first win since the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship, the site of next week’s Signature Event. The following week, the 2015 PGA Champion heads to Valhalla with the rest of the best in golf for the 106th PGA Championship. After cashing in the top 10 three times in his first five events of 2024, his best result in his next five was T18 at RBC Heritage two weeks ago.

    South Korean stars shine in Texas, and Si Woo Kim (+2000) will look to add his name to the list. Closing with 63 last year, the Dallas resident missed forcing a playoff by a shot and shared second. Not missing the weekend from 11 tries in 2024, the Korean has leaned on his excellent ball-striking from tee to green. Ranking in the top 30 in every Strokes Gained category minus putting, his best two paydays this season are T6 at THE PLAYERS and T12 at TPC Scottsdale. Needing only 100 putts here last year, he only made two bogeys for the week.

    Playing TPC Craig Ranch for the first time, Sungjae Im (+2500) arrives at a new venue, and a new spot on the schedule can spark his spring. Usually played the week before the PGA Championship, THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and yes, that is a new sponsor, has moved back two weeks. The Korean previously played this event in 2019, the only time he’s been in Dallas, and finished 83rd at Trinity Forest. Cashing T12 at RBC Heritage two weeks ago, the two-time PGA TOUR winner picked up his first top-15 payday since opening the season with T5 on Maui.

    Here's a look at other notable odds via BetMGM.

    • +2800: Byeong Hun An, Tom Kim
    • +3300: Keith Mitchell, Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Hoge
    • +4000: Thomas Detry
    • +4500: K.H. Lee (2021, 2022 winner), Mackenzie Hughes
    • +5000: Aaron Rai, Adam Schenk, Patrick Rodgers, Seamus Power
    • +6000: Beau Hossler
    • +6600: Davis Thompson, Luke List, Mark Hubbard, Maverick McNealy
    • +8000: Andrew Novak, Doug Ghim, Greyson Sigg, Nate Lashley, Peter Kuest, Sam Stevens, Thorbjorn Olesen
    • +9000: Daniel Berger, Justin Lower, Kevin Yu, Ryan Fox
    • +10000: Alejandro Tosti, Alex Smalley, Ben Martin, Brice Garnett, C.T. Pan, Chad Ramey, Charley Hoffman, Garrick Higgo, Jake Knapp, Max Greyserman, Michael Kim, Robert MacIntyre, S.H. Kim, Taylor Pendrith

    Find others listed at BetMGM.com

    How the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson works:

    • A field of 156 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes.
    • The purse of $9.5 million will pay first place $1.71 million to the winner.
    • The winner also receives 500 FedExCup points.
    • This is the last chance to earn points for eligibility into the Signature Event next week at the Wells Fargo Championship for the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5.

    -Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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