Tournament Preview (David Barnett)

What says, “AMERICA” better than dirt moving, load haulin’, green and yellow John Deere tractors on this Fourth of July week as the PGA TOUR descends on TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic? Plus, we were all FINALLY treated to the comeback win from one of America’s favorites as Rickie Fowler took down the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

It’s not often we see a tournament favorite, also outside the top 25 in the world, close the door on a high-variance birdie-fest. But that’s exactly what Fowler (now No. 23 in the world) delivered last week. He was around 35% owned across most DraftKings DFS contests, and he was a must-have to take down any level tournament.

Historically, the John Deere Classic has given us quite the eclectic bunch of winners with bombers, short hitters, great putters, not so great putters and everything in between holding the leaping buck trophy on Sunday evening. This birdie festival tends to favor the hottest players in the field with their wedges, short irons, and putter. The wide fairways, receptive bent grass greens, and 7,100-yard total can yield low numbers to all types of players.

Over the last four years, the average GIR percentage hasn’t made it below 70%. TPC Deere Run is far from a ball-striking contest, which leads to more variance. Leave bogeys off the card, hit it close and make plenty of putts. One interesting trend we noticed in our early-week research was how driving distance has increased over the years. When Jordan Spieth won here for the second time in 2015, the average driving distance was 277 yards. When J.T. Poston won here last year, it was the highest driving distance on record at TPC Deere Run with an average of 295 yards for the field. It hasn’t dipped shorter than 290 yards over the last three years.

One final note on the last two renewals of the Deere is how the DFS scoring has played out. Not a single $10K priced player on DraftKings returned value in either 2021 or 2022. And if you looked at the perfect DraftKings lineup possible over the last two years, only two of the 12 total roster spots would’ve been priced higher than $8,900. It seems as though there are no guaranteed “free squares” in DFS lineups at the Deere. Given that variance of golf in general, plus the parity in talent from the top end to the middle of this field, the balanced DFS lineup construction build presents quite the strong case.

Lineup Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)

If you’d like to build a lineup with three players in the $9K range, then you’re going to need some cheaper options to round out the team. At $7,000, Justin Lower is showing up nicely for us in a few key metrics. Over the last 50 rounds, he’s 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting. Lower’s clearly a huge fan of bent grass if you look at his performance on different surfaces throughout his career. He’s also just shown a propensity to take it really low for a random round or two on courses that don’t require you to hit it a million yards off the tee.

If you recall, he started the season off at the Fortinet Championship in one of the final groups on Sunday on his way to a T4 finish. There he opened with a 63. Last week he had just one bogey in his final three rounds at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he’s currently 91st in the FedExCup standings. One big finish this week – and Lower could propel himself near the top 70 as the playoffs loom just a few weeks away.

Despite the hot run with the irons and putter this season, Chez Reavie was still under 6% owned in DFS contests for the Rocket Mortgage Classic before finishing T29. He led the tournament in Strokes Gained: Approach along with Rickie Fowler! For the first time since THE PLAYERS, he lost strokes putting or we’d likely be talking about another top 25 for Reavie.

He’s having a solid year, in large part because of his iron play and putting. But this week, he comes to a place where his short and straight game off the tee won’t be as heavily penalized as other weeks on TOUR. This is a layout where he can just throw darts with his wedges and fill up the cup. He’s got a strong record at TPC Deere Run, as he’s making his 11th appearance. Reavie’s gained strokes off the tee in eight of 10 previous tournament starts.

The last three times Reavie gained strokes off the tee since THE PLAYERS…he finished 11th, 49th and fourth! He’ll likely come in sub-10% again in DFS at $7,700, but we believe he’s got winning upside worth taking a shot on.