Each week the voices behind the “Tour Junkies” will examine DFS strategy for the upcoming PGA TOUR event with the Golfbet audience in mind. This week the scene shifts to New York for the PGA Championship, where the key is finding high-floor options and potential contrarian pivots to help make your lineup stand out from the masses.

Course/Strategy (David Barnett)

The season’s second major championship arrives at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY for the PGA Championship – and there are DraftKings Milly Makers to be conquered! You don’t have to look far on the internet to find detailed course breakdowns of Oak Hill, so we’ll cut right to the chase. What kind of players or strategy should you be implementing to finish in the top 1-3% of your DraftKings DFS contest entries?

Given that successful DFS entries don’t just require you to select the best players, we should consider lineup construction variables and ownership leverage. You can’t roster ALL of the best players. You shouldn’t roster ALL of the obvious values on DraftKings as you scroll through the pricing. You’re going to have to differentiate your lineups in some way and keep your chalk intake in check.

All early reports on Oak Hill indicate a handful of skill sets being key to success. We know that the PGA Championship in recent years has started to look more like the U.S. Open, with harder setups and winning scores barely getting to the teens. The early weather reports also tell us the temps in Rochester will be cool (especially in the mornings), and the wind is going to play a factor for at least a couple of rounds. Given this forecast, the setup of the course, and Oak Hill being a 7,400 yard-par 70 – distance seems to be the No. 1 skill necessary to at least raise your floor for the PGA Championship.

The guys we like the most are the guys that can hit it long and high off the tee, hit their mid and long irons well, can scramble around the greens and from bunkers, avoid bogeys, and have shown some level of success on difficult golf courses. Plus, we like the guys that can grind in tough conditions and situations. The days where Rochester is cold and windy will test not just your physical game, but your mental game as well.

Finally, before locking in your lineups for Thursday morning, evaluate your player pool to make sure you have at least some exposure in every lineup to less popular plays. You NEED the leverage to pass people in DFS. And while we believe the longest hitters have the higher floor at Oak Hill, it doesn’t mean that a shorter, accurate player can’t contend. The shorter players will need to be strong with long irons and elite on and around the greens.

Picks (Pat Perry & Ben Little)

Diving into the picks this week, one of the toughest things to overcome with player selection for majors is there are so many enticing players to choose from. We have to be bold and willing to plant flags!

Look, we aren’t trying to build a diversified investment portfolio here, folks. We want a winning DFS lineup and we can’t spread our player selections out so much that it leads to overexposure to the field and eliminates all elements of risk and upside. It doesn’t work that way if you want to cash and have unique lineups in DFS. With that in mind, there are a couple potentially contrarian pivot options we really love this week.

In the top tier, we know a lot of lineups will start with either Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler – and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why that may be. If we want to pivot away from those two, then why not just fade the entire premium tier of most expensive guys and start with a more contrarian play in Patrick Cantlay? Cantlay has had an extremely solid season with several top 5 finishes, but just hasn’t been able to put it all together for a win. He sits inside the top 25 on the PGA TOUR in both driving distance and accuracy over the last 50 rounds. Plus, his mid to long iron game is among the best in the world. It all could finally add up for Cantlay at Oak Hill, and nobody would be surprised.

Looking just a tad bit down the board, a lot of make-or-break decisions will be made in the median price range this week. The chalk here can be a little tougher to nail down, but a good pivot in this range might end up being a proven veteran in Mr. Adam Scott. Scott has quietly put together a successful 2023 season and is coming in hot, with two straight top-10 finishes. Scott has gained nearly 20 strokes in just his last three events with short game and putting alone. Combine that with his distance and ball-striking, and we could see the sweet-swinging veteran raise the Wanamaker.

If you’re looking for a $6K player to round out a top-heavy lineup, you may have noticed that Eric Cole was added to the DraftKings player pool on Monday after getting in the PGA at the final hour. Cole has been extremely impressive since his breakout playoff loss at the Honda Classic to Chris Kirk. In 12 events so far in 2023, he’s gained strokes on approach in 10 of them. He’s averaging over 300 yards off the tee, and the short game looks solid. Cole’s a confident ball-striker with no apparent “holes in the boat.”

Cole could go overlooked in DFS as a late addition to the player pool. Despite it being just his third major championship appearance, we believe he’s got top-10 upside.